Русский
External validity of the international method for predicting the clinical outcome of Immunoglobulin A nephropathy in a Belarusian cohort of patients
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/nephrology.2024.2.35-42
Komissarov K.S., Krasko O.V., Pilotovich V.S., Dmitrieva M.V., Letkovskaya T.A., Prilutsky S.V.
1) State University Minsk Scientific and Practical Center for Surgery, Transplantology and Hematology, Minsk, Republic of Belarus; 2) Institute for Advanced Training and Retraining of Healthcare Personnel, Belarusian State Medical University, Minsk, Republic of Belarus; 3) Joint Institute of Informatics Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk, Republic of Belarus; 4) Belarusian State Medical University, Minsk, Republic of Belarus; 5) City Clinical Pathological Bureau, Minsk, Republic of Belarus; 6) Minsk Regional Clinical Hospital, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
Material and methods: The study included 164 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of IgAN in the Nephrology Departments of Minsk. For the period from 2010 to 2020, the predicted risks of clinical outcome for each patient in the Belarusian cohort were calculated. The effectiveness of discrimination (Harrell's C-index of concordance, Royston-Sauerbrey discrimination coefficient R2D, and Kaplan-Meier curves between subgroups) and model calibration (calibration slope) were assessed.
Results. The international method showed excellent discrimination (Harrell C-index=0.86, R2D=60% and well-separated survival curves between low- and high-risk patients), satisfactory calibration (calibration slope >1.2) regardless of the inclusion of a race model.
Conclusion. The study demonstrated high discrimination and satisfactory calibration of the international method for predicting the clinical outcome of IgAN in the Belarusian cohort of patients
About the Autors
Kirill S Komissarov – Cand.Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Nephrology, Renal Replacement Therapy and Kidney Transplantation, Minsk Scientific and Practical Center for Surgery, Transplantology and Hematology. Address: 8 Semashko st., Minsk; tel.: +(37517) 277-20-35, +(37529) 680-70-97); e-mail: kirill_ka@tut.by. ORCID: 0000-0002-2648-0642.
Olga V. Krasko – Cand.Sci. (Tech.), Leading Researcher at the Laboratory of Bioinformatics Joint Institute of Informatics Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. e-mail: olga.krasko.ok@gmail.com. ORCID: 0000-0002-4150-282X.
Valery S. Pilotovich – Dr.Sci. (Med.), Professor at the Department of Urology and Nephrology, Institute for Advanced Training and Retraining of Healthcare Personnel, Belarusian State Medical University. Address: 64 Independence ave., Minsk; tel.: +375 17 265-25-61; e-mail: pilotovich@mail.ru. ORCHID: 0000-0001-8256-5889.
Margarita V. Dmitrieva – Associate Professor at the Department of Pathological Anatomy, Belarusian State Medical University. Address: 60 Kizhevatov st., Minsk; tel.: +37517 2771319; e-mail: mvdmitieva@inbox.ru. ORCID: 0000-0002-2958-9424.
Tatyana A. Letkovskaya – Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Pathological Anatomy, Belarusian State Medical University. Address: 60 Kizhevatov st., Minsk; tel.: +375 17 3987237; e-mail: taletkovskaya@mail.ru. ORCID: 0000-0002-9381-2985.
Sergey V. Prilutsky – Nephrologist, Head of the Hemodialysis Department, Minsk Regional Clinical Hospital. Address: Lesnoy, Minsk district; tel.: +375 17 2654864; e-mail: 2489861@rambler.ru. ORCID: 0009-0004-5174-1893.
